AgWeatherNet Weekly Weather Outlook for 1 November to 7 November 2021

Repeated fronts to keep active weather in place this week

Mark Ingalls, AgWeatherNet Field Technician

Synopsis:

Several frontal boundaries are forecast to cross Washington this week, keeping a chance of rain (and high elevation snow) in place for the whole week in and west of the Cascades with a few chances of rain in Eastern Washington lowlands. These are expected almost daily with the best chance of rain in eastern lowlands coming Monday night and Thursday. While active weather is forecast to last into the weekend, there is less consistency among weather models on the strength and timing of the incoming disturbances, leading to lower forecast confidence.

Discussion:

A weak low pressure system located well offshore is likely to swing a cold front through the Pacific Northwest on Monday. As this low moves to the north, it will stretch the cold front causing it to weaken as it moves inland. Look for rain showers in and west of the Cascades, with increasing clouds during the day and a chance of rain reaching Eastern Washington tonight and tomorrow. Strong easterly downslope winds should gradually weaken in the foothills of the Cascades adjacent to the Puget Sound as the cross-mountain pressure gradient weakens.

The next disturbance is a warm front approaching the region on Tuesday. It is forecast to bring rain along the coast with lower precipitation chances inland, but upper level conditions are likely to rush the warm front out of the Pacific Northwest before it can bring much rain and mountain snow to the rest of the state. A break in the rain for the entire state is possible Wednesday morning before another cold front and more rain com in during the afternoon. This spreads east of the Cascades overnight and into Thursday, bringing what is likely to be the wettest day for most of the state this week.

Models diverge Friday and beyond on the timing and strength of new systems, but in most of the solutions the end result is the same – rain west of the Cascades, rain and snow in the mountains, and a chance of rain east of the Cascades. Recent rainfall has continued to improve drought conditions in the state. In last week's drought monitor update, modest improvement was noted in Eastern Washington generally to the north of Interstate 90. Exceptional drought (D4/4) remains for the Columbia Basin and Palouse, with extreme drought (D3/4) encompassing Spokane and severe drought (D2/4) for most of the rest of the eastern half of the state.


8 to 14 Day Outlook, 8 November to 14 November 2021
  • Above average temperatures and above average precipitation are favored for the period.

Important Points About This Week's Weather

South Central Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Light and variable Tue & Wed, SW and breezy Thu, S with breezy areas Fri.
  • Precipitation: Rain Mon night and Thu.
  • High Temps: Low 50s Tue, mid 50s Wed, upper 50s Thu-Fri.
  • Low Temps: Upper 30s Mon night, near 40 Tue night, low 40s Wed-Fri nights.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy.
Weekend
  • Wind: SW with breezy areas Sat & Sun.
  • Precipitation: Chance of rain Sat & Sun.
  • High Temps: Mid 50s Sat & Sun.
  • Low Temps: Near 40 Sat & Sun nights.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy.

North Central Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Light and variable Tue & Wed, SW and breezy Thu, S with breezy areas Fri.
  • Precipitation: Chance of rain Mon night, mountain showers Wed, rain likely Thu, chance of rain Fri.
  • High Temps: Low 50s Tue, mid 50s Wed-Fri. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Mid 30s Mon night, low 40s Tue-Thu nights, upper 30s Fri night. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy to overcast.
Weekend
  • Wind: SW with breezy areas Sat & Sun.
  • Precipitation: Chance of rain Sat & Sun.
  • High Temps: Low 50s Sat & Sun. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Upper 30s Sat & Sun nights. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy to overcast.

Eastern Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Light and variable Tue & Wed, SW and breezy Thu, S with breezy areas Fri.
  • Precipitation: Rain likely Mon night & Thu, isolated rain Fri.
  • High Temps: Low 50s Tue, mid 50s Wed-Thu, low 50s Fri. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Low Temps: Upper 30s Mon-Tue nights, low 40s Wed night, upper 30s Thu night, mid 30s Fri night. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy.
Weekend
  • Wind: SW with breezy areas Sat & Sun.
  • Precipitation: Chance of rain and high elevation snow.
  • High Temps: Near 50 Sat & Sun. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Low Temps: Mid 30s Sat & Sun nights. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy.

Western Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: E with breezy areas Tue & Wed, S with windy areas Thu, SW and generally light Fri.
  • Precipitation: Rain and mountain snow showers.
  • High Temps: Upper 50s Tue & Wed, mid 50s Thu & Fri. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Mid 40s Mon night, upper 40s Tue night, near 50 Wed night, mid 40s Thu-Fri nights. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy to overcast.
Weekend
  • Wind: Generally S with breezy areas.
  • Precipitation: Rain and mountain snow showers.
  • High Temps: Near 50 Sat & Sun. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Low 40s Sat & Sun nights. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy to overcast.

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Washington State University