AgWeatherNet Weekly Outlook for February 05 to February 11, 2021

Cold, dry conditions expected for the coming week

Mark Ingalls, AgWeatherNet Intern
Craig Oswald, AgWeatherNet Field Meteorologist

Synopsis:

Ridging is in place offshore Washington, placing the state under northwest flow through the weekend. A shortwave disturbance is expected to move through Saturday to bring conditions similar to what was seen Friday morning, namely lowland rain and mountain snow in the Okanogan, Blues, Cascades, and Western Washington. Windy conditions are also expected in many places. Breezy conditions look to linger in some places Sunday, with rain and mountain snow possibly lasting through Monday in far southeastern parts of the state and through the Cascades. Beyond this, dry conditions prevail with most of the state seeing lows below freezing for the week thanks to a strong arctic cold pool expected to move into the southern Canadian Prairies by early next week. Allowing for cooler temperatures to creep into Washington from the northeast. There is a low chance of precipitation Thursday, but agreement among models is low.

Discussion:

The ridge located over the Northeast Pacific had Washington under northwesterly flow Friday morning. This pattern is expected to continue through the weekend. A shortwave disturbance worked through the region Friday, bringing gusty winds as well as rain and mountain snow to parts of the state. Another shortwave disturbance is expected to cross the state Saturday bringing similar conditions. Those who saw windy conditions Friday (including the Columbia Basin and the Strait of Juan de Fuca) can expect a repeat on Saturday with some gusts likely to exceed 50 mph. Those who saw rain or mountain snow can also expect a repeat, including Western Washington and the Cascades.

Lingering breezy conditions can be expected Sunday in the Columbia Basin and on the Palouse. Precipitation will slowly work its way out of the area from northwest to southeast, eventually coming to an end for the Blue Mountains and northern Hells Canyon area Monday. Arid parts of Washington should remain dry.

Offshore ridging continues as a potent trough dives into the Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday. The trough will bring Arctic air into much of Canada and the US Plains, with cold conditions filtering through the Rocky Mountains into Washington. Temperatures at places like Calgary, Alberta and Prince George, British Columbia may approach -30 degrees at times creating an area of high pressure at the surface that will switch the wind pattern to being out of that direction.

Most of the state can expect to see easterly or northeasterly flow, bringing the cold Canadian air into the region. This will not be as extreme as is expected in the Plains states, but everyone west of the Cascades, except those adjacent to the ocean, strait, or sound can look forward to temperatures below freezing during the overnight hours Monday through Thursday. East of the Cascades, teens and twenties can be expected in the lowlands, with sub-zero temperatures possible near the Canadian border. While the surface wind will be an important factor in this week's weather, it is expected to be generally light. The exception to this is in Whatcom County, where the Fraser gap will produce strong winds and some breezy conditions could be expected through the Palouse/Columbia Basin Thursday and Friday

There is a chance that a closed upper low will penetrate the ridge on Thursday or Friday to bring some precipitation to Washington, but models disagree on a lot of the specifics with this system. Otherwise, guidance suggests that the cold temperatures will begin to moderate toward next weekend.


8 to 14 Day Outlook, February 12 to February 18, 2021
  • Below average temperatures and near average precipitation are favored for the period.

Important Points About Next Week's Weather

South Central Washington
Weekend
  • Wind: SW and windy Sat with gusts to 45 mph. SW and breezy Sun with gusts to 25 mph.
  • Precipitation: Dry conditions expected.
  • High Temps: Mid 50s Sat, upper 40s Sun.
  • Low Temps: Near 40 Fri night, mid 30s Sat night, upper 20s Sun night.
  • Sky Cover: Clear to partly cloudy.
Next Week
  • Wind: Generally NE, breezy conditions possible Thu.
  • Precipitation: Dry conditions expected.
  • High Temps: Mid 40s Mon, upper 30s Tue, mid 30s Wed & Thu.
  • Low Temps: Low 20s Mon night, near 20 Tue & Wed night, low 20s Thu night.
  • Sky Cover: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog.

North Central Washington
Weekend
  • Wind: W and breezy Sat, gusts to 30 mph. W Sun and breezy in the basin, gusts to 20 mph.
  • Precipitation: Chance of rain and mountain snow Sat & Sun, best chance in the mountains.
  • High Temps: Upper 40s Sat, upper 30s Sun. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Near 30 Fri night, near 30 Sat night, near 20 Sun night. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Increasing clouds Fri night, mostly cloudy to overcast Sat & Sun.
Next Week
  • Wind: Generally N/NE, breezy conditions possible Thu.
  • Precipitation: Chance of mountain snow Thu.
  • High Temps: Near 30 Mon, upper 20s Tue-Thu. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Mid teens Mon night, near 10 Tue night, near 10 Wed night, low teens Thu night. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog.

Eastern Washington
Weekend
  • Wind: SW and breezy Sat, gusts to 30 mph. SW Sun and breezy on the Palouse, gusts to 20 mph.
  • Precipitation: Low chance of rain/snow Sat, chance of rain/snow in the Blues Sun.
  • High Temps: Mid 40s Sat, upper 30s Sun. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Low Temps: Low 30s Fri night, near 30 Sat night, mid 20s Sun night. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Sky Cover: Increasing clouds Fri night, mostly cloudy Sat & Sun.
Next Week
  • Wind: Generally N/NE, breezy conditions possible Thu.
  • Precipitation: Lingering showers in the Blues Mon, otherwise dry.
  • High Temps: Low 30s Mon, mid 20s Tue & Wed, near 30 Thu. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Low Temps: Low teens Mon night, near 10 Tue & Wed night, low teens Thu night. Warmer in the Lewis & Clark Valley.
  • Sky Cover: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog.

Western Washington
Weekend
  • Wind: Generally W, breezy along the Strait with gusts to 30 mph.
  • Precipitation: Rain and mountain snow showers ending Sun.
  • High Temps: Upper 40s Sat, mid 40s Sun. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Low Temps: Low 40s Fri night, near 40 Sat night, mid 30s Sun night. Cooler in higher terrain.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy to overcast.
Next Week
  • Wind: Generally E/NE and light except in western Whatcom County where breezy to windy conditions are possible Mon-Thu.
  • Precipitation: Low chance of rain and snow Thu.
  • High Temps: Low 40s Mon-Thu. Cooler in higher terrain and in Whatcom County.
  • Low Temps: Upper 20s Mon night-Thu night. Cooler in higher terrain and in Whatcom County. Warmer on the coast.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy.

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