AgWeatherNet Weekly Weather Outlook Monday Update for June 15 to June 21, 2020

Mostly dry conditions statewide by mid week

Craig Oswald, Field Meteorologist, 509-786-9256

Discussion:

This past weekend saw some rather interesting weather throughout the region as more thunderstorms than anticipated in Fridays outlook persisted through many parts of Washington state. Most of the thunderstorm activity beyond Friday and through the course of the weekend was quite modest in nature, producing some gusty generally non-damaging winds, a little bit of lightning, localized areas of moderate to heavy rain, and a few instances of interesting storm/cloud structure as relayed on social media. There were however reports of quarter sized hail Friday in far southeast Washington near the Blue Mountains and east according to NOAAs Storm Prediction Center (SPC). And while Saturday's thunderstorm activity wasn't significant enough to produce any SPC storm reports in Washington, a very brief EF-0 tornado with winds estimated at 75mph was observed in northwest Oregon, just east/southeast of Portland. This tornado downed some trees and produced some light damage through the area.

Turning our attention back to the upcoming weather, unsettled conditions look to continue to persist into tomorrow. The mostly widespread rain that passed through the state late last night and this morning looks to continue to dissipate and turn more scattered in nature. These unsettled conditions are congruent with another upper low that is expected to pass through the state Tuesday from the northwest. As the upper low takes residence over the state Tuesday, it may produce enough instability aloft to allow for an isolated convective shower or weak thunderstorm, especially if any day time warming can peek through the cloud cover to help destabilize lower levels of the atmosphere. Greater shower activity can be expected over upland and mountain regions.

By mid week, an upper ridge and area of surface high pressure off the coast are expected to begin influencing the Pacific northwest as the upper low continues to move to the east/southeast. This looks to bring dry and much sunnier conditions statewide by Wednesday. This weather, much more conducive to outside activity, is anticipated to remain through the week. It is worth mentioning however that a few light rain showers have the possibility of working into mostly upland areas of northeast Washington from the northeast Thursday night. These are a product of the afore mentioned upper low reorganizing and circulating a few scattered rain showers around the backside of its center. The center at which time broadly looks to be positioned over Montana.

While conditions are expected to remain dry throughout eastern Washington for the weekend, the northern half of western Washington stands to see a few scattered rain showers. An upper low positioned near the Aleutian Islands is anticipated to eject a shortwave in the Friday timeframe. This upper disturbance looks to move in from the west and clip the northwest corner of the state producing another round of unsettled weather for that locale. Rain showers are expected to move in from the west beginning Saturday night with showers possibly lingering through the weekend in northwest Washington.

Growers primarily through south central and north central regions of the state should again be aware of cooler temperatures in store for tonight (Monday) as the upper low continues to encroach on the Pacific Northwest. Based on anticipated temperatures aloft, a potential low temperature of 33-34 degrees could be expected on a clear, calm, dry night. However, much like this past weekend, elevated dew points thanks to recent precipitation and ample cloud cover look to mitigate overnight lows. Winds are likely to become light to calm for the overnight, and in locations the typically trend colder, it is likely that observed temperatures will be in the upper 30s. After Monday night, it is still expected that temperatures will begin to recover through the week once the upper low moves out of the area. In fact, temperatures well above normal are to be anticipated by the weekend.


Important Points about Next Week's Weather

South Central Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Generally SW and light through the week. Breezier at times during the day. Gusty Tuesday with any passing convective showers/thunderstorms.
  • Precipitation: A few scattered rain showers Tuesday along with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Trending dry Tuesday night and remaining so for the week.
  • High Temps: Near 70 Tue, upper 70s Wed, low 80s Thu, upper 80s Fri.
  • Low Temps: Upper 40s Mon night, mid 40s Tue night, upper 40s Wed night, mid 50s Thu night.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly cloudy Mon night, partly cloudy Tue, partly cloudy Tue night, mostly sunny Wed, mostly clear Wed night, sunny Thu, mostly clear Thu night, mostly sunny Fri.

Weekend
  • Wind: Generally SW and light yet variable through the weekend. A bit breezier at times during the day.
  • Precipitation: Dry conditions expected.
  • High Temps: Low 90s Sat, low 90s Sun.
  • Low Temps: Upper 50s Fri night, low 60s Sat night, low 60s Sun night.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.

North Central Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Generally S/SW and light early in the week. Gusty Tuesday with any passing convective showers/thunderstorms. Turning more W/NW yet light and variable after Tuesday. Breezier at times during the day, especially through the Basin.
  • Precipitation: A few scattered rain showers Tuesday along with an isolated thunderstorm possible. More consistent shower activity over upland and mountain areas. Trending dry Tuesday night. Chance for a few light rain showers over upland and mountain areas of northeast WA Thursday night. Overwise dry conditions expected region wide.
  • High Temps: Mid 60s Tue, mid 70s Wed, near 80 Thu, low 80s Fri. Cooler through high terrain.
  • Low Temps: Near 50 Mon night, upper 40s Tue night, near 50 Wed night, mid 50s Thu night. Cooler through high terrain and deep valleys.
  • Sky Cover: Cloudy Mon night, mostly cloudy Tue, partly cloudy Tue night, mostly sunny Wed, partly cloudy Wed night, mostly sunny Thu, partly cloudy Thu night, mostly sunny Fri.

Weekend
  • Wind: Generally SW and light yet variable through the weekend. A bit breezier at times during the day, especially through the Basin. Much more variable north of the Basin.
  • Precipitation: Low chance for a light upland/mountain rain shower through northwestern parts of the region Saturday night. Otherwise dry conditions expected region wide.
  • High Temps: Mid 80s Sat, upper 80s Sun. Cooler through high terrain.
  • Low Temps: Upper 50s Fri night, near 60 Sat night, low 60s Sunday night. Cooler through high terrain and deep valleys.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.

Eastern Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Generally SW and light through the week. Breezier at times during the day. Gusty Tuesday with any passing convective showers/thunderstorms.
  • Precipitation: Scattered rain showers Tuesday along with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible. More consistent shower activity over the Blue Mtns. Trending dry Tuesday night and remaining so for the week.
  • High Temps: Upper 50s Tue, mid 60s Wed, near 70 Thu, mid 70s Friday.
  • Low Temps: Mid 40s Mon night, mid 40s Tue night, mid 40s Wed night, upper 40s Thu night.
  • Sky Cover: Cloudy Mon night, mostly cloudy Tue, mostly cloudy Tue night, partly sunny Wed, partly cloudy Wed night, mostly sunny Thu, partly cloudy Thu night, mostly sunny Fri.

Weekend
  • Wind: Generally SW and light yet variable through the weekend. A bit breezier at times during the day.
  • Precipitation: Dry conditions expected.
  • High Temps: Near 80 Sat, low 80s Sun.
  • Low Temps: Low 50s Fri night, mid 50s Sat night, upper 50s Sun night.
  • Sky Cover: Partly sunny to partly cloudy.

Western Washington
Remainder of the Week
  • Wind: Generally W and light yet variable. Breezier at times during the day. Gusty Tuesday with any passing convective showers/thunderstorms.
  • Precipitation: Rain showers expected Tuesday along with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible. More consistent shower activity over the Cascades and Olympics. Trending dry Tuesday night and remaining so for the week.
  • High Temps: Upper 60s Tue, near 70 Wed, mid 70s Thu, upper 70s Fri. Much cooler through the Cascades and Olympics.
  • Low Temps: Upper 40s Mon night, mid 40s Tue night, mid 40s Wed night, low 50s Thu night. Much cooler through the Cascades and Olympics.
  • Sky Cover: Cloudy Mon night, mostly cloudy Tue, partly cloudy Tue night, partly sunny Wed, partly cloudy Wed night, mostly sunny Thu, partly cloudy Thu night, partly sunny Fri. Patchy fog during the overnights.

Weekend
  • Wind: Light and variable.
  • Precipitation: Chance for a light rain shower or two through northern half of the region Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise dry conditions expected.
  • High Temps: Low 80s Sat, upper 70s Sun. Much cooler through the Cascades and Olympics.
  • Low Temps: Mid 50s Fri night, mid 50s Sat night, mid 50s Sun night. Much cooler through the Cascades and Olympics.
  • Sky Cover: Mostly sunny to mostly cloudy.

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