AgWeatherNet Weekly Weather Outlook for October 28 to November 3, 2017

Pleasant Through Early Next Week; Becoming Unsettled Late in the Period

Nic Loyd, Meteorologist, 509-786-9357

Even with Halloween approaching, there is nothing spooky about the late October weather forecast. Tranquil conditions look to persist into early next week, as high pressure generally remains in control. The result will be mild, sunny days and modestly cool nights. Aside from some morning fog this weekend, there should not be many weather concerns in the short term. Despite the relative calm, however, there could be subtle day to day changes. Increasing north winds for late Sunday into Monday are expected to transport a pulse of dry air into the region. Thus, chilly lows may return around Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Otherwise, the main issue later in the period is anticipated to be a major pattern change toward unsettled and eventually cooler conditions. The details are not clear, but increasing southwesterly winds and rain chances are likely for early November. Initially, even if high temperatures decrease for many areas, the clouds, wind, and increased atmospheric mixing are forecast to lead to warmer low temperatures. Looking farther ahead toward next weekend and beyond, a push of notably cooler air is possible. In any event, colder air may finally begin to build across parts of Western Canada as we progress deeper into autumn. October should conclude with relatively mild and uneventful weather, but there is no reason to think that such placid conditions will persist for very long into November.

Temperatures
  • Mild this weekend.
  • Cooler for early to mid next week.
  • Cooler days and milder nights possible later next week.
  • Much cooler in the mountains later in the period.

Precipitation
  • Mostly dry through early next week.
  • A chance of mainly western rain (and mountain snow) later next week.

Wind
  • Increasing north winds late on Sunday and into early Monday.
  • Increasing southwest winds starting by Thursday.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - November 4, 2017 to November 10, 2017
  • Overall, near to below average temperatures and near average precipitation are expected during the 8 to 14 day time frame.

Frost Risk Summary
  • This Weekend: Moderate risk.
  • Next Week: Moderate risk on Monday morning, and then moderate to high risk, and decreasing risk later in the week.

Long Range Discussion / Seasonal (Winter) Outlook

The slow trend toward an increasingly wintry outlook continues, as the mid latitude eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies have decreased slightly in recent days. This is the source region of many of the air masses that impact Washington. With all else being equal, air passing over relatively cooler water may itself be slightly cooler.

Still, the fundamental factor that should determine the character of this (or any) winter will be the atmospheric circulation pattern. If the air flow is predominantly from the sub-tropical Pacific, the winter will be warm, and if the air flow is primarily from western Canada, the winter will be cold.


Important Points about Next Week’s Weather

South Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s to low 40s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the upper 50s to 60s on Saturday, and 60s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the 30s to mid 40s.
Next Week
  • Mostly dry. A slight chance of rain later in the week.
  • Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s early, and cooler later in the week.
  • Lows in the 30s to mid 40s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and possibly warmer later in the week.

North Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday, and low to mid 60s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s on Saturday morning, and upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • Mostly dry early. A slight chance of rain later in the week.
  • Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s early, and cooler later in the week.
  • Lows in the 30s to mid 40s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and possibly warmer later in the week.

Eastern Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday, and upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s on Saturday morning, and upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • Mostly dry early. A chance of rain later in the week.
  • Highs in the 50s to around 60 early, and cooler later in the week.
  • Lows in the 30s to low 40s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and possibly warmer later in the week.

Western Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the mid 50s to around 60 and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the 60s to around 70 on Saturday, and 60s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the 40s on Saturday morning, and 40s to low 50s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • Mostly dry early. Rain likely later in the week.
  • Highs in the upper 50s to 60s on Monday, and cooler later in the week.
  • Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and possibly warmer later in the week.

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