AgWeatherNet Weekly Weather Outlook for February 4 to February 10, 2017

Active and Changeable Late Winter Weather Expected

Nic Loyd, Meteorologist, 509-786-9357

The transition from colder and drier to stormy and milder will continue this weekend, as the continental air mass from Groundhog Day is replaced with a maritime air mass thanks to breezy southerly winds. The dynamic nature of the pattern suggests a difficult forecast, and later this weekend will be no exception. In a variable regime such as this, exact temperatures and precipitation amounts/types carry a lot of uncertainty, but the following represents the most likely evolution of weather conditions.

Overall, wet weather is likely in western areas because of persistent southwesterly air flow, while periodic rain or mixed precipitation is expected in some locations east of the Cascades. South central Washington should be in a precipitation shadow much of the time, although occasional rain is possible as stronger disturbances pivot through the region. However, the higher mountains are anticipated to receive appreciable snowfall.

As mentioned above, there are still a variety of potentially impactful scenarios that may or may not develop later this weekend. Given the character of the winter so far, these possibilities are worth considering despite the low confidence in the details. Some model solutions are sending a low pressure system through Washington on Sunday, which may cause lowland snowfall and/or gusty winds in some areas of central or western Washington. However, pinpointing the timing and specific locations is not possible at present. Even if largely benign conditions ultimately occur, being prepared for changing weather is advisable.

For early next week, colder upper level air should at least briefly return to the Northwest. Even so, stronger winds and mixing may cause chinook-type warming in central Washington, although other parts of the state should cool down relative to Sunday. In any case, most places should become cooler and drier again sometime around early to mid next week, before additional mild storms again take aim on the region later in the period. It will once again be interesting to see if there is any wintery weather during the potential overlap period of incoming precipitation and departing cold air.

Temperatures
  • Warming this weekend.
  • Becoming cooler early next week, and then warmer later next week.

Precipitation
  • Rain or possibly snow at times in the west, with a chance of rain or snow at times in the east.

Wind
  • Breezy to windy at times.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - February 11, 2017 to February 17, 2017
  • Overall, above average temperatures and near to above average precipitation are expected during the 8 to 14 day time frame.

Important Points about Next Week's Weather

South Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the 40s and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Weekend
  • A chance of rain or a mix at times, especially on Sunday.
  • Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s on Saturday, and mid 30s to 40s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the 20s to low 30s on Saturday morning, and upper 20s to 30s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A chance of rain or a mix at times.
  • Highs in the mid 30s to 40s on Monday, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the upper 20s to 30s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.

North Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s.
Weekend
  • A chance of rain or snow at times, especially on Sunday.
  • Highs in the 30s on Saturday, and mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the 20s on Saturday morning, and upper 20s to mid 30s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A chance of rain or snow at times.
  • Highs in the 30s on Monday, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.

Eastern Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s to around 30.
Weekend
  • Rain, or possibly a mix, likely at times.
  • Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday, and upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s on Saturday morning, and 30s to around 40 on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A chance of rain or a mix at times.
  • Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s on Monday, and then possibly cooler, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the 30s to around 40 on Monday morning, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.

Western Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Weekend
  • Rain at times, possibly falling as wet snow in the north later on Sunday. Heavy mountain snow possible.
  • Highs in the mid 40s to low 50s on Saturday, and 40s on Sunday.
  • Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Next Week
  • A chance of rain or possibly wet snow early in the week.
  • Rain likely later in the week.
  • Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s early, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the 30s on Monday morning, and then cooler, and warmer later in the week.


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