AgWeatherNet Weekly Weather Outlook for January 9 to January 15, 2016

Weak Storms At Times Next Week

Nic Loyd, Meteorologist, 509-786-9357

I am sorry to report that the message from recent runs of the weather forecast models is clear: El Niño is back. Actually, the tropical event itself was never gone, and is in fact roughly tied with 1997/1998 and 1982/1983 as the strongest on record. Its influence on our weather, however, which waned somewhat in December, may resume for mid January.

The monster trough located south of the Aleutians, which (as we mentioned last year) is a characteristic feature of El Niño years, may be returning next week as an anchor for the global atmospheric circulation. Meanwhile, another trough will be possible over the central/eastern parts of Canada and the US. As a result, Washington is likely to be squeezed between these two features, which may cause a split flow pattern to dominate Northwest weather as we approach mid month. Right now, it seems that the two troughs should be far enough away to prevent strong storms from impacting the state, but close enough that a stagnant, dry ridge of high pressure can be avoided. Thus, weak or moderate strength storms could periodically transit Washington with modest precipitation totals and wind speeds, and generally warmer than normal temperatures. Although this weekend is expected to be mainly dry, slightly unsettled weather is possible next week. The good news for the long term is that climate signals continue to look positive for next winter.

Temperatures
  • Above normal overall, especially later in the period.

Precipitation
  • A chance of rain at times in the west next week.
  • A chance of periodic light rain, mix, or snow in the east next week.

Wind
  • Possibly breezy at times, especially later next week.

Frost Risk Summary
  • This Weekend: Moderate to high risk.
  • Next Week: Moderate to high risk through mid week, and decreasing risk later in the week.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - January 16, 2016 to January 22, 2016
  • Overall, above average temperatures and near average precipitation are expected during the 8 to 14 day time frame.

Important Points about Next Week's Weather

South Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the 30s to low 40s.
  • Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s on Saturday morning, and 20s to low 30s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A slight chance of rain or snow at times.
  • Highs in the 30s early, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the 20s early, and warmer later in the week.

North Central Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low to mid 20s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the 30s.
  • Lows in the 20s to low 30s on Saturday morning, and 20s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A slight chance of snow or rain at times.
  • Highs in the upper 20s to 30s early, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the 20s early, and warmer later in the week.

Eastern Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the upper 20s to 30s.
  • Lows in the 20s on Saturday morning, and upper teens to 20s on Sunday morning.
Next Week
  • A slight chance of rain or snow at times.
  • Highs in the upper 20s to 30s early, and warmer later in the week.
  • Lows in the upper teens to 20s early, and warmer later in the week.

Western Washington
  • Normal conditions for this time of the year would be highs in the mid 40s to around 50 and lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Weekend
  • Mostly dry.
  • Highs in the 40s to around 50.
  • Lows in the 30s.
Next Week
  • A chance of rain at times.
  • Highs in the 40s to low 50s.
  • Lows in the 30s early, and warmer later in the week.
Washington State University