AgWeatherNet Autumn 2014 Weather Review for Washington

Despite A Cool November, Autumn Season the Warmest Since 1998

Nic Loyd, Meteorologist, 509-786-9357
Gerrit Hoogenboom, Director, 509-786-9371

Overview
November was a period of wild extremes in temperature. Although monthly temperatures were slightly below average overall, that is hardly illustrative of day to day conditions. Very warm weather early in November rapidly transitioned to bitter cold by mid month, as highs in central areas fell from the 60s/low 70s to the upper 20s/30s in only a few days, while lows dropped from the 30s/40s to the upper single digits and teens. In fact, Prosser's daily high was below freezing just a couple of days after their first frost of the autumn. However, temperatures again climbed rapidly in late November, only to plummet at month's end. Precipitation was also highly variable within the month. Unfortunately, the wet periods corresponded to warm times, such that snow pack was in rather poor shape at month's end.

October 2014's monthly average high, low, and mean temperatures all shattered the old October records for warmth. Prosser's mean monthly low (45.0 degrees) was an incredible 2.2 degrees higher than the previous record year (2003). In fact, only 8 of the previous 25 Octobers at Prosser had a mean low that was above 40 degrees! It is worth noting that October is typically one the least variable calendar months from year to year, which makes this data more unusual than even these surprising statistics would indicate.

Moxee's mean October low was nearly 11 degrees warmer than last year. Amazingly, Mt. Vernon's mean low for October 2014 was actually slightly warmer than their normal October mean temperature, and also nearly 2 degrees warmer than their normal September mean low temperature. Overall, the monthly temperatures were almost 3 standard deviations above normal (standard anomaly = 2.9), which ranked 2014 near the 99th percentile for October. The combination of an early heat wave and the mid to late month mild nights made October another month for the record books.

Overall, autumn temperatures were well above normal, and the warmest since 1998. Once again, that generalization hardly describes the unique character of the season. An above normal September and an exceptionally warm October were followed by a cool November which featured an early season arctic outbreak at mid month. Despite temperatures that were slightly below normal in November, Mt. Vernon nonetheless experienced their warmest autumn since our records began in 1994.

November 2014 Average Temperatures (°F)
Location (Period of Record) Maximum Anomaly Minimum Anomaly Mean Anomaly Soil Temperature
8 inches
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
47.4
-0.9
29.3
-2.6
38.0
-1.8
47.2
Moxee (1989-2014)
47.5
-0.8
25.4
-1.6
36.2
-1.0
44.8
Mt Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
51.6
0.6
37.1
-1.7
43.9
-0.8
46.9
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
47.0
0.8
28.1
-2.0
36.5
-1.0
41.6
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
47.9
-2.2
31.3
-2.3
39.3
-2.4
45.7
Walla Walla (1993-2014)
47.4
-1.6
31.6
-3.3
39.3
-2.4
46.9
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
45.3
-1.0
27.8
-2.7
36.1
-1.9
43.0
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
41.9
NA
26.3
NA
33.8
NA
42.2
Royal City East (2008-2014)
45.4
NA
29.0
NA
36.6
NA
41.8
Pullman (2008-2014)
43.6
NA
27.9
NA
35.8
NA
39.8
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
54.9
NA
39.5
NA
47.4
NA
50.4
Sequim (2008-2014)
51.4
NA
34.8
NA
42.9
NA
47.5
Seattle (2011-2014)
52.6
NA
39.0
NA
45.2
NA
48.9
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
52.1
NA
37.5
NA
44.7
NA
51.6
2014 Rainfall and Evapotranspiration (ET) (inches)
Location (Period of Record) Rainfall ET Net
November 2014 November (Rain - ET)
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
0.22
5.18
1.75
-1.53
Moxee (1989-2014)
0.26
4.65
1.64
-1.38
Mt. Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
3.90
35.90
0.92
2.98
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
1.10
7.88
0.94
0.16
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
0.51
4.69
1.85
-1.34
Walla Walla (1993-2014)
1.79
12.26
1.07
0.72
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
0.65
4.59
1.63
-0.98
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
1.96
8.58
0.97
0.99
Royal City East (2008-2014)
0.63
5.18
1.59
-0.96
Pullman (2008-2014)
2.58
13.88
2.05
0.53
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
8.77
61.05
0.93
7.84
Sequim (2008-2014)
2.33
15.32
1.17
1.16
Seattle (2011-2014)
4.65
40.19
0.98
3.67
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
3.60
33.66
1.32
2.28
November 2014 Daily Rainfall Time Series Graph for Prosser November 2014 Daily Rainfall Time Series Graph for Long Beach

November Weather
Early November-Very Warm
November began with highs in the mid 40s to 50s on the 1st, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Rain fell in eastern areas, with 0.6 inches recorded at Walla Walla. Highs on the 4th reached the 50s to around 70 degrees. Lows were in the 40s to mid 50s. Rain fell in many areas, although totals in central Washington were generally quite light. 0.81 inches was recorded at Tokeland, while Fairfield registered 0.41 inches. Most of the sunshine was found in central areas, as southerly breezes continued in eastern border areas, with a 41 mph wind gust reported at Dayton.

Highs on the 5th reached the 50s to low 70s, with the warmest temperatures around Walla Walla. Lows were in the upper 30s to mid 50s. Rain fell in parts of western and central Washington, with 0.38 inches at Seattle.

Mid November-Cold and Dry
Big changes began on the 10th and 11th, as much colder weather moved into Washington. A pattern disruption caused by the extra-tropical low spawned by Super Typhoon Nuri led to an early season arctic outbreak. Snow fell in southern WA on the 13th and 14th.

Highs on the 11th reached the upper 20s in the east to the low 50s at the coast, with lows in the upper teens to 30s, except 6 degrees at Anatone. Skies were mainly sunny, with dry air and strong northeasterly winds, as arctic air poured in from a strong surface high in Alberta. Daily average wind speeds were as high as 30 mph at Huntsville! Highs on the 12th climbed into the upper 20s to 30s east of the Cascades, and 40s in the west, with lows as cold as 3 degrees at Anatone. It was mainly sunny, as modified arctic air continued to pour into Washington.

Highs on the 14th reached the 40s in the west, and 30s to low 40s in the east, except 23 degrees at Dayton. Lows ranged from 35 degrees at Tokeland to 6 degrees at Lind. Precipitation fell in extreme southern areas, although much of the rest of the state was mainly sunny.

Highs on the 17th climbed into the 30s and 20s in the east, and upper 40s to mid 50s in the west, with lows in the upper single digits to 30s. Aside from some fog in southern areas, it was mainly sunny and winds were rather light.

Late November-From Warm to Cold
Highs on the 24th were in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 20s to 40s. 1.1 inches of rain fell at Long Beach, and it was windy in southeastern areas. Highs on the 27th ranged from the 30s in north central areas to the 60s in some western and southern areas. Around three-quarters of an inch of rain fell in north central areas. The 27th was very warm, with highs in the 40s to 60s, and lows in the 30s to 50s. 1.1 inches of rain fell at Montesano on a breezy day statewide.

November 2014 Daily Temperatures
2014 temperature Time Series Graph for Prosser 2014 temperature Time Series Graph for Moxee
2014 temperature Time Series Graph for Wenatchee 2014 temperature Time Series Graph for Tri-Cities
2014 temperature Time Series Graph for:Walla Walla November 2014 Temperature Time Series Graph for WSU
November 2014 Temperature Time Series Graph for WSUMoses Lake November 2014 Temperature Time Series Graph for WSU Omak
November 2014 Temperature Time Series Graph for WSU Long Beach November 2014 Temperature Time Series Graph for WSU Mt. Vernon

November-By The Numbers
The average November temperature at Prosser (WSU IAREC) was 38.0°F, which is 1.8 degrees below average. The average high temperature was 47.4°F, which is 0.9 degrees below average. The average low temperature was 29.3°F, which is 2.6 degrees below average. The maximum temperature recorded last month was 67.5°F on November 6th, while the coolest daily high was 25.3°F on November 18th. Low temperatures ranged from 50.8°F on November 27th to 10.1°F on November 18th. Daily average temperatures ranged from 58.1°F on the 27th to 17.3°F on the 18th. The monthly precipitation total was 0.22 inches. The average wind speed was 4.4 mph, and the average 8 inch soil temperature was 47.2°F.


Notable November Events
  • November 9th: The winds at Dayton gusted to 49 mph.
  • November 12th: The low temperature at Anatone plunged to 3 degrees.
  • November 18th: The high temperature at the Tri-Cities was only 23 degrees.

November Temperature Extremes (°F)
  Observed in 2014 Record Monthly Extremes
Site (Period of Record) Warmest Date Coldest Date Warmest Date Coldest Date
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
67.5
11/6/2014
10.1
11/18/2014
73.8
11/13/1999
0.9
11/24/2010
Moxee (1989-2014)
68.0
11/4/2014
8.0
11/30/2014
71.0
11/13/1999
-17.2
11/24/2010
Mt. Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
65.3
11/6/2014
20.4
11/13/2014
65.9
11/14/1995
7.5
11/28/2006
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
66.4
11/4/2014
11.9
11/30/2014
67.0
11/4/2007
-4.6
11/24/2010
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
70.9
11/6/2014
11.1
11/30/2014
75.8
11/13/1999
3.4
11/24/2010
Walla Walla (1992-2014)
72.4
11/6/2014
6.4
11/30/2014
79.2
11/12/1999
-3.2
11/24/2010
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
62.7
11/27/2014
8.9
11/15/2014
68.4
11/12/1999
-12.5
11/24/2010
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
59.5
11/6/2014
8.4
11/30/2014
61.3
11/2/2010
-4.4
11/24/2010
Royal City East (2008-2014)
63.1
11/6/2014
10.6
11/18/2014
65.6
11/2/2010
-3.6
11/24/2010
Pullman (2008-2014)
67.1
11/6/2014
1.3
11/30/2014
67.1
11/6/2014
-15.4
11/24/2010
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
60.0
11/7/2014
23.6
11/15/2014
74.0
11/3/2010
22.6
11/24/2010
Sequim (2008-2014)
65.8
11/6/2014
12.7
11/30/2014
65.8
11/6/2014
-0.3
11/23/2010
Seattle (2011-2014)
64.7
11/6/2014
21.1
11/30/2014
NA
NA
NA
NA
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
62.6
11/25/2014
18.2
11/17/2014
70.6
11/3/2010
12.6
11/24/2010

Autumn Weather
September and October Review
September marked the seventh consecutive month of abnormal warmth in Washington. Conditions were appreciably warmer than normal for both the day-time and night-time periods. Locations west of the Cascades such as Mt. Vernon were especially balmy, with temperatures of more than 2 degree above normal. An impressive 1.58 inches of rain fell at Mt. Vernon on September 2nd, while Vancouver soared to 95 degrees just four days later. Much of the first two-thirds of the month was fairly dry with large diurnal ranges. One of the more notable weather episodes of September was the shot of dry air that arrived during the second week of the month, and produced some chilly low temperatures on the mornings of the 11th to the 13th. On September 11th, the low at Pullman was 26 degrees, which was their coldest reading since April 13th. Overall, September was a typically variable and relatively unremarkable weather month.

October was the third time since July that Prosser experienced a record warm month. The monthly mean temperature represented the largest absolute (positive or negative) departure from normal for any month since January of 2010. Early month daytime heat was one major reason for the abnormal warmth. Numerous monthly record highs were set on the 6th, including 89 degrees at Wenatchee and 86 degrees at Moses Lake. Prosser's high of 89 degrees surpassed the old October record by more than 5 degrees! Temperatures, however, were only one piece of the unique October 2014 narrative. October was an all or nothing month with regard to storms and precipitation. For example, Long Beach was rain free for the first 8 days of October, and then recorded rain on 22 of the final 23 days of the month. Following dry and somewhat calm weather early on, conditions became unsettled and at times breezy for much of the middle to latter portion of the month. Periodic heavy rain, especially during the final ten days of October, amounted to big monthly totals in western areas, including a robust 10.85 inches at Stevenson.

Winter 2013 Daily Rainfall Time Series Graph for Prosser Winter 2013 Daily Rainfall Time Series Graph for Long Beach

Autumn-By The Numbers
The average autumn temperature at Prosser (WSU IAREC) was 52.8°F, which is 1.8 degrees above average. The average high temperature was 64.9°F, which is 1.6 degrees above average, while the average low temperature was 41.4°F, which is 1.7 degrees above average. Daily high temperatures ranged from 89.6°F on September 7th to 25.3°F on November 18th. Low temperatures varied from 59.0°F on September 23rd to 10.1°F on November 18th. Daily average temperatures ranged from 70.0°F on September 22nd to 17.3°F on November 18th. 1.08 inches of rain fell during the autumn season. The average wind speed was 4.0 mph, while the average 8 inch soil temperature was 58.7°F.

Autumn 2014 Average Temperatures (°F)
Location (Period of Record) Maximum Anomaly Minimum Anomaly Mean Anomaly Soil Temperature
8 inches
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
64.9
1.6
41.4
1.7
52.8
1.8
58.6
Moxee (1989-2014)
64.8
1.2
36.8
2.8
50.3
2.1
55.3
Mt. Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
61.9
2.6
46.4
2.7
53.7
2.5
56.0
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
64.0
1.3
41.3
1.9
51.9
1.7
55.2
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
67.0
1.7
44.4
2.3
55.2
1.9
61.7
Walla Walla (1993-2014)
65.8
2.8
44.0
1.3
54.1
1.7
61.4
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
63.6
1.3
40.0
1.7
51.4
1.4
58.8
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
60.7
NA
39.7
NA
49.9
NA
56.5
Royal City East (2008-2014)
62.7
NA
42.3
NA
51.8
NA
56.8
Pullman (2008-2014)
61.0
NA
37.4
NA
49.3
NA
52.9
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
63.4
NA
46.8
NA
54.7
NA
58.0
Sequim (2008-2014)
61.7
NA
42.8
NA
52.0
NA
55.7
Seattle (2011-2014)
64.0
NA
48.5
NA
55.3
NA
58.9
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
65.8
NA
46.1
NA
55.7
NA
58.9
Autumn 2014 Rainfall and Evapotranspiration (ET) (inches)
Location (Period of Record) Rainfall ET Net
(Rain - ET)
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
1.08
10.80
-9.72
Moxee (1989-2014)
1.26
9.16
-7.90
Mt. Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
12.61
5.55
7.06
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
2.79
7.46
-4.67
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
1.25
11.89
-10.64
Walla Walla (1993-2014)
2.92
8.98
-6.06
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
1.39
11.05
-9.66
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
3.83
7.41
-3.58
Royal City East (2008-2014)
1.58
9.96
-8.38
Pullman (2008-2014)
3.76
13.49
-9.73
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
22.05
5.43
16.62
Sequim (2008-2014)
5.54
6.36
-0.82
Seattle (2011-2014)
13.54
5.90
7.64
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
11.05
8.26
2.79
Notable Autumn Events
  • September 6th: The high temperature at Vancouver soared to 95 degrees.
  • September 11th: The low temperature at Pullman plunged to 26 degrees.
  • September 23rd: 2.34 inches of rain fell at Tokeland.
  • October 6th: The temperature at Mabton East rose to 92 degrees.
  • October 25th: The wind at Huntsville gusted to 59 mph.
  • November 12th: The low temperature at Anatone plunged to 3 degrees.

Autumn Temperature Extremes (°F)
  Observed in 2014 Record Seasonal Extremes
Site (Period of Record) Warmest Date Coldest Date Warmest Date Coldest Date
Prosser (WSU IAREC; 1989-2014)
89.6
9/7/2014
10.1
11/18/2014
97.0
9/2/1998
0.9
11/24/2010
Moxee (1989-2014)
88.7
9/7/2014
8.0
11/30/2014
98.3
9/5/2003
-17.2
11/24/2010
Mt. Vernon (WSU NWREC; 1994-2014)
81.4
9/6/2014
20.4
11/13/2014
83.0
9/3/2003
7.5
11/28/2006
Wenatchee (WSU TFREC; 1994-2014)
90.4
9/7/2014
11.9
11/30/2014
98.9
9/1/1998
-4.6
11/24/2010
Tri-Cities (1995-2014)
90.6
10/6/2014
11.1
11/30/2014
98.3
9/1/1998
3.4
11/24/2010
Walla Walla (1992-2014)
89.7
9/7/2014
6.4
11/30/2014
97.6
9/15/2013
-3.2
11/24/2010
Moses Lake (1989-2014)
89.5
9/7/2014
8.9
11/15/2014
98.3
9/3/2006
-12.5
11/24/2010
Omak (Pogue Flat; 2005-2014)
88.5
9/7/2014
8.4
11/30/2014
97.3
9/9/2011
-4.4
11/24/2010
Royal City East (2008-2014)
88.5
9/21/2014
10.6
11/18/2014
93.3
9/12/2013
-3.6
11/24/2010
Pullman (2008-2014)
87.5
9/21/2014
1.3
11/30/2014
94.7
9/24/2011
-15.4
11/24/2010
Long Beach (WSU Long Beach; 2005-2014)
89.1
9/6/2014
23.6
11/15/2014
96.0
9/22/2009
22.6
11/24/2010
Sequim (2008-2014)
79.0
9/6/2014
12.7
11/30/2014
80.9
9/8/2011
-0.3
11/23/2010
Seattle (2011-2014)
89.9
9/6/2014
21.1
11/30/2014
NA
NA
NA
NA
Vancouver (WSU RE; 2008-2014)
94.8
9/6/2014
18.2
11/17/2014
95.9
9/11/2013
12.6
11/24/2010
Weather Summary By Month
  • September: Warmer than normal.
  • October: From hot and dry to mild and wet.
  • November: Highly variable conditions.

Agriculture Report
The apple harvest concluded in early November, as did winter wheat planting. Many growers began to clean up and winterize their fields and orchards as cold weather hit during the middle of the month cold outbreaks from 1955 and 1985 indicated that the mid November 2014 temperatures were not nearly as cold as the earlier events. (National Agricultural Statistics Service). There was some concern that warm antecedent conditions followed by a rapid transition to well below normal temperatures could lead to tree mortality in central Washington. However, the extent, if any, of the cold-induced tree mortality will not become apparent until the spring. Fortunately, an AgWeatherNet analysis of two historic and damage-causing early season cold outbreaks from 1955 and 1985 indicated that the mid November 2014 temperatures were not nearly as cold as the earlier events.

This Month in History
On November 12, 1999, the temperature at Walla Walla soared to 79 degrees.

Climate Outlook
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation are likely well into 2015. The oceanic state now resembles El Niño conditions, although the atmospheric response has been somewhat lagging.

Washington State University